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Alcohol and Homicide in Eastern Europe

A Time Series Analysis of Six Countries

Norwegian Institute for Alcohol and Drug Research, Oslo, ekb{at}sirus.no

Few studies have addressed the association between alcohol consumption and homicide rates at the population level in eastern European countries. The aim of the present study was to test hypotheses on how this association may vary across countries with different drinking patterns and for gender specific homicide rates. Time series analysis was used on annual alcohol consumption and homicide rates for six eastern European countries. The estimates were pooled into two groups of countries with more (Russia and Belarus) and somewhat less (Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, and former Czechoslovakia) hazardous drinking patterns. The overall results showed that annual changes in alcohol consumption were positively and significantly associated with homicide rates and also indicated that the estimates were stronger in countries with a more detrimental drinking pattern. The results suggest that alcohol consumption has an effect on homicide rates in Eastern Europe and that this effect varies with drinking pattern.

Key Words: homicide • alcohol consumption • Eastern Europe • time series

Homicide Studies, Vol. 12, No. 1, 7-27 (2008)
DOI: 10.1177/1088767907310851


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