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Homicide Studies
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Conflict Theory, Economic Conditions, and Homicide

A Time-Series Analysis

Travis C. Pratt

Rutgers University

Christopher T. Lowenkamp

University of Cincinnati

Conflict theorists often specify an inverse relationship between economic conditions and crime. Empirical support for this contention in time-series analyses, however, has been inconsistently revealed in the literature, where positive, inverse, and null results have all been found. Part of the problem may be attributed to the inability of traditional measures of economic deprivation to fully capture the dynamics of a changing economic market. Accordingly, this article contains a specific empirical test of the economics-crime relationship using a different measure of economic conditions (a composite measure of coincidental economic indicators) and examining its relationship with homicides over time for total homicides, felony murders, and acquaintance homicides. Consistent with the tenets of conflict theory, the analysis reveals considerable support for an inverse relationship between economic conditions and homicide rates. Furthermore, although changes in economic conditions significantly predicted levels of both total and acquaintance homicides, the effect was strongest in the model predicting instrumental homicides (felony murders).

Homicide Studies, Vol. 6, No. 1, 61-83 (2002)
DOI: 10.1177/1088767902006001004
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